.... 本魯有訂WSJ啦 今天世界版頭版的標題是Taiwan 讓本56節錄出來給鄉民看看 Taiwan’s Impossible Choice: Be Ukraine or Hong Kong https://tinyurl.com/2225ewsn By Yaroslav Trofimov and Joyu Wang July 5, 2023 12:01 am ET TAIPEI, Taiwan—People in Taiwan have been following every twist of the war in Ukraine. But, while their sympathy for the Ukrainian cause is near-universal, the conclusions for the island’s own future widely diverge. 台灣人都有在追烏俄戰爭 但是從中得到的教訓卻有很大分歧 To some, the takeaway is that even a seemingly invincible foe can be defeated if a society stands firm, an inspiration for Taiwan’s own effort to resist a feared invasion by China. Others draw the opposite lesson from the images of smoldering Ukrainian cities. Anything is better than war, they say, and Taiwan should do all it can to avoid provoking Beijing’s wrath, even if that means painful compromises. 有人覺得只要全民團結 中國就打不下來 有人看烏克蘭的城市 覺得不要打仗比什麼都好 These two competing visions will play out in Taiwan’s presidential elections, slated for January, and shape how the island democracy revamps its defenses as China’s military might expands. The soul-searching inside Taiwan, and the determination with which it will strengthen its armed forces, is also bound to affect the extent to which the U.S. will get involved militarily should Beijing try to capture the island, home to 24 million people —and most of the world’s advanced semiconductor production capacity. 這兩種看法會影響這次選舉 台灣人有多大決心擴充軍備 也要看米國爸爸會怎麼做 ... Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has already moved to increase the length of compulsory military service starting next year, to one year from four months, and is boosting military spending as Taipei purchases new weapons from the U.S., such as hundreds of Harpoon antiship missiles. While Tsai isn’t eligible to run again, the presidential candidate from her ruling party— current Vice President Lai Ching-te—has similarly pledged to safeguard the island’s autonomy and resist Beijing’s growing intimidation. EE延長了兵役 然後賴神大概也會繼續這麼做 “I don’t think anybody rational could look at this and say dialogue is going to change Xi or the CCP,” said Vincent Chao, a former national-security official and Lai’s spokesman, referring to China’s Communist Party. “They see the subjugation of Taiwan as part of their national rejuvenation, as something inherently connected to their political legitimacy. It’s incumbent upon any candidate to be realistic about the situation.” Ukraine, he added, has given Taiwan a “brilliant lesson” in how to defend itself—and how to build coalitions with like-minded democracies. 趙怡翔覺得 跟習大大或是CCP溝通沒用 所以烏克蘭是很好的示範 告訴台灣要好好保護自己 The main opposition Nationalist Party, known as the Kuomintang, holds a different view. “We want to talk to the Chinese. We believe that we can have a dialogue with the Chinese. That will certainly de-escalate the tension, to make sure no accidental war, and for sure no intentional war, happens,” Kuomintang vice chairman Andrew Hsia said in an interview before departing on a trip to China in June, his second this year. KMT則說要跟對岸溝通 他們相信可以降低緊張的情勢 Ukraine’s tragedy has made an outreach to Beijing even more vital, he added: “In the past we talked about war, but now for the first time we saw in our living rooms, on television, all this destruction. Are we ready for that? I don’t think we are, I don’t think we are that resilient.” 夏立言說 大家都聽過談過戰爭 但是他不覺得大家真的準備好了 The Kuomintang’s presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, pledged this week that he would return the compulsory military service length to four months after improving ties with Beijing. 侯侯縮短兵役也上WSJ了 .... While the U.S. has no binding obligation to defend Taiwan and has long maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity on the issue, President Biden repeatedly cautioned that, unlike in Ukraine, the U.S. military would intervene directly should China attempt to seize the island by force. Before American troops deploy, however, the island would have to resist the first blows on its own. So far, despite recent improvements, it is far from ready, many U.S. officials and analysts say. 雖然美國爸爸沒有義務保護台灣 但拜爺強調美國會介入台海戰役 前提是台灣要先能自己抵抗 只是美國的軍官跟分析師 都覺得台灣根本沒有準備好 “The Taiwanese have to be committed 100%, because if they are not, there is no reason for the U.S. or any other nation to come to their aid,” said ret. U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in Arlington, Va. “There needs to be a sense of urgency. America is not going to spill the blood of her sons and daughters over Taiwan if the Taiwanese are not willing to wholeheartedly prosecute the defense of their island and their people.” 美國前空軍司令說 台灣必須100%保證會打 不然美國人沒有理由犧牲美國人保護台灣 While augmented over the past year, Taiwan’s military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with well over 3% for the U.S., Poland’s 4% and about 5% in Israel. The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan’s military are a particular concern, Western officials say. The island’s main officer training school was originally established as Whampoa Military Academy in southern China in the 1920s, with heavy reliance on Soviet instructors. Outdated Soviet-style military culture and doctrine still persists in the ranks, defense analysts say. 雖然這幾年台灣軍事預算有漲 但是還是很低 人家以色列或是波蘭都有4~5% 而且國軍的專業跟士氣都很差 黃埔那套都是蘇聯過時的教案 但現在還是拿來用 Despite the recent increase in the length of conscription, education deferrals mean that most draft-age Taiwanese won’t serve the entire year until 2028—and it remains unclear to what extent the current training of draftees, which according to many soldiers produces few useful skills, will be modernized. 然後雖然說兵役有延長 但是這些延長兵役的役男 五年內都不會入伍 Currently, most draftees spend their time cleaning floors and picking weeds rather than learning how to repel Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army, said ret. Adm. Lee Hsi-min, a former chief of Taiwan’s military who has become a vocal critic of the island’s military preparedness. 李喜明說 大部分役男都在擦地板跟除草 “If you just do the same things for a year instead of four months, then you have a problem and a bad reputation,” he said. “The problem is the training content, not the training period. How you do it is much more important than how long you do it.” The military says it is working to improve the training. 重點不在於役期長短 在於訓練內容是啥 Taiwan has also had trouble retaining its professional troops, including highly trained Air Force pilots. Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a recent report that roughly 20% of its career soldiers over the past five years have decided to leave the military before their contracts were scheduled to end. Just last year, more than 3,700 soldiers asked to quit, according to the report. 志願役也有問題 過去幾年1/5的士兵決定提前退伍 “In the past, Taiwan’s civilians were not very close with our military because our old military came from the outside, didn’t derive from inside the country. There was a giant gap between civilian people and military guys, ” said DPP lawmaker Wang Ting-yu, a senior member of the Taiwanese parliament ’s defense committee. “But I have to say this is an old situation,” he added, saying that, under Tsai, Taiwan’s civilian-military relationship has transformed: “She made the military realize you need to defend democracy.” The government, he said, has increased pay for the troops and is modernizing the training programs, in part by bringing in foreign instructors and sending some Taiwanese units for exercises in the U.S. 王八千說 早期台灣人跟軍隊有隔閡 因為軍隊都是外國來的 但這是過去式 EE已經讓民眾了解到你要抗中保台 提高了預算也送人去美國受訓 These changes, however, have yet to translate into new attitudes among the general public, where service in the armed forces holds little prestige or appeal. Wang Chung-wei, a draftee who is heading to the military in the coming weeks, said that he, like most young Taiwanese men, wasn’t looking forward to the experience. “Not at all. It will be a total waste of time,” he said, adding he would rather stay home and work in the family business. “ It doesn’t matter to me if China takes over. Our families have arrived here from China anyway.” 但這些改變並沒有讓大部分民眾改變態度 跟其他年輕人一樣 某位菜兵說他覺得當兵浪費時間 他寧願回家幫忙工作 他也不在乎是否被統一 反正他們全家之前也是從中國來的 Several other young people interviewed in Taipei’s Ximending shopping district echoed the sentiment, saying they saw little point in sacrificing their lives given China’s immense power. 很多西門町的年輕人 也不太想犧牲他們自己的時間 “The young people are the ones who don’t want unification with China,” said ret. Lt. Gen. Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s air force. “But if you want independence, you need to fight, and they also don’t want to fight. Therein is the conflict.” 年輕人不想跟中國統一 但是你要獨立你要作戰 但是你又不想作戰 這就是衝突所在 節錄一些隨便翻一翻啦 後面還有提到黑熊學院(Kuma Academy) 有興趣的人可以上網自己找全文 簡單來說啦 現況就是台灣軍備鳥到爆炸 兵役延長也沒啥鳥用 年輕人不要統一但不想當兵 美國人都不太看好台灣現在的狀況 台灣是要變成香港還是烏克蘭 就等著總統大選看看 獨立報導跟讀者投書 到底哪個客觀 大家自己看著辦啦 ※ 引述《nightwing (夏日浮雲)》之銘言： : 1.媒體來源: : NOWnews 今日新聞 : 2.記者署名: : 邱新博 : 3.完整新聞標題: : 賴清德投書華爾街日報　趙怡翔：總統該有的高度 : 4.完整新聞內文: : https://i.imgur.com/S6ksfN7.jpg : ▲副總統賴清德投書《華爾街日報》。（圖／總統府提供） : 記者邱新博／台北報導 : 2023-07-05 14:36:53 : 《華爾街日報》今（5）日刊登民進黨總統參選人賴清德投 : 書，以「我保衛台海和平的計畫」為題，敘述未來將全力強 : 化國防嚇阻力、提升經濟安全、展開民主夥伴合作，並維護 : 兩岸現狀，透過「4個支柱」帶來台海的永續和平與國家的 : 繁榮。台北市議員、賴辦發言人趙怡翔對此表示，這就是總 : 統候選人該有的高度。 : 趙怡翔分析，賴清德選擇上外籍媒體投稿的原因很簡單，華 : 爾街日報不但是美國發行量最大報紙，也是世界領袖的重要 : 國際平台，包括美國總統拜登任內以三度投稿華爾街日報， : 印度總理、日本首相，甚至近日烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基也都在 : 此平台撰文，爭取外界的支持。 : 趙怡翔說，在台灣面臨的急迫區域環境之下，能向國際傳達 : 訊息，與世界意見領袖互動甚為重要。無論綠藍白的立場為 : 何，我相信，一個面向國際的台灣，能登上國際舞台的總統 : ，這對台灣只有加分效果，對保障台海安全也有貢獻。 : 趙怡翔表示，可惜的是，另外兩位選舉對手對此概念似乎比 : 較陌生。這包括侯友宜至今未說清楚自己兩岸立場與國際合 : 作的方針，在兵役議題上更為反覆不明。柯文哲則是選擇與 : 美國學者公開吵架，並進行連串的外交凸槌。在台灣最需要 : 國際連結的同時，我們不能讓他們帶台灣走上回頭路。 : 相對而言，賴清德的政策越來越明朗。要如何改革國防以嚇 : 阻中國武力威脅，透過多元貿易及新興產業的配置強化經濟 : 安全，與民主國家建立更緊密的合作，並以穩定且具有原則 : 的兩岸領導力維持兩岸現狀，這都是賴清德的清楚方針。 : 趙怡翔指出，選舉還有6個月，相信賴清德發布這篇文章的 : 原因之一，也是希望將選舉態勢重新聚焦在國家當前的利益 : 與挑戰之上。拚國際，總比拚著排椅子重要。這篇文章受於 : 字數的限制，不可能涵蓋到所有政策細節與內容，但重點就 : 是要引起理性的政策討論，為更好的國際論述而努力。 : 5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址)不可用YAHOO、LINE、MSN等轉載媒體: : https://www.nownews.com/news/6189025 : 6.備註: : https://i.imgur.com/cYy2tf5.jpg : https://i.imgur.com/M9F68ua.jpg : https://i.imgur.com/Xuv2HtN.jpg : 賴fool總統像月亮，初一十五不一樣。 : https://i.imgur.com/fIX0GJs.jpg : https://i.imgur.com/5jKx3Ew.png -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 185.193.156.145 (美國) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1688599569.A.257.html